Welp, that was easy. Right tool for the job...where have I heard that before?
The mailman delivered the seal driver kit that Sniper recommended (thanks, man). It's niiiice. Precision made, nice finish. Took me a minute to realize that two discs could be stacked...
supporting and centering the seal perfectly, like so:
Yank out the old one...
Gently bash in the new one...never having done this before (correctly, that is) I was overly cautious about when to stop. I used the depth gauge on my vernier caliper to try to figure out when it was most of the way in, but it turns out that the larger disc will be flush with the rim when it's all the way in. Also, the sound changes...you can pretty much tell when you need to stop and you've bottomed out. And finally, you can stick a finger in there and feel when the two edges meet.
aaaaand, yer done.
Two seals in, less than 45 minutes. I'm now a reformed seal mangler, ready to re-enter society. Thanks everyone, for all the advice! Seriously, I wouldn't have known how to pull this off otherwise.
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Art Bailey's post in I'm mangling rear axle seals... was marked as the answer